Lazio
Parma
Lazio – Parma
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 23, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 66 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.87 – 0.81
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50 %
- Both teams to score
- 47 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Lazio at home (66 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.87 goals for Lazio and 0.81 for Parma. Bookmakers say the same thing: 69 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Lazio took 13 points and Parma 4 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Lazio, 2 draws, 1 win for Parma. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 47 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lazio | 1.36 | 69 % | -9.8 % |
| XDraw | 4.70 | 20 % | +1.1 % |
| 2Parma | 8.25 | 11 % | -0.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Lazio
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Parma
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Lazio
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Parma
- Lazio1-1Parma
- Parma0-1Lazio
- Lazio2-2Parma
- Parma3-1Lazio
- Lazio1-0Parma
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Lazio – Parma?
Our model gives 1 · Lazio a 66 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Lazio win 66 %, draw 22 %, Parma win 12 %.
What is the most likely score for Lazio – Parma?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.