Saint-Étienne
Nantes
Saint-Étienne – Nantes
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 23, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 55 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.71 – 0.97
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50 %
- Both teams to score
- 51 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Saint-Étienne at home (55 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.71 goals for Saint-Étienne and 0.97 for Nantes. Bookmakers say the same thing: 55 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Saint-Étienne took 10 points and Nantes 7 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Saint-Étienne, 4 draws, 1 win for Nantes. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Saint-Étienne | 1.68 | 55 % | -7.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.80 | 24 % | +2.8 % |
| 2Nantes | 4.60 | 20 % | -19.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Saint-Étienne
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Nantes
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Saint-Étienne
- 4 draws
- 1 win
- Nantes
- Saint-Étienne1-1Nantes
- Nantes2-2Saint-Étienne
- Nantes1-1Saint-Étienne
- Saint-Étienne0-1Nantes
- Saint-Étienne1-1Nantes
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Saint-Étienne – Nantes?
Our model gives 1 · Saint-Étienne a 55 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Saint-Étienne win 55 %, draw 27 %, Nantes win 18 %.
What is the most likely score for Saint-Étienne – Nantes?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.