1. FC Nürnberg
Kaiserslautern
1. FC Nürnberg – Kaiserslautern
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 23, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 49 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.64 – 1.14
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53 %
- Both teams to score
- 55 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards 1. FC Nürnberg at home (49 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.64 goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.14 for Kaiserslautern. Bookmakers say the same thing: 48 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, 1. FC Nürnberg took 9 points and Kaiserslautern 10 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for 1. FC Nürnberg, 2 draws, 1 win for Kaiserslautern. Over 2.5 goals: 53 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11. FC Nürnberg | 1.95 | 48 % | -5.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.80 | 24 % | +7.5 % |
| 2Kaiserslautern | 3.30 | 28 % | -23.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
1. FC Nürnberg
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Kaiserslautern
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- 1. FC Nürnberg
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Kaiserslautern
- 1. FC Nürnberg3-0Kaiserslautern
- Kaiserslautern1-11. FC Nürnberg
- Kaiserslautern1-21. FC Nürnberg
- 1. FC Nürnberg0-0Kaiserslautern
- Kaiserslautern2-01. FC Nürnberg
Frequently asked questions
Who will win 1. FC Nürnberg – Kaiserslautern?
Our model gives 1 · 1. FC Nürnberg a 49 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: 1. FC Nürnberg win 49 %, draw 28 %, Kaiserslautern win 23 %.
What is the most likely score for 1. FC Nürnberg – Kaiserslautern?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.