Borussia Dortmund
03:30 PM
Sep 12
SC Paderborn 07
Borussia Dortmund – SC Paderborn 07
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:44 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 2-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.75 – 0.90
- Over 2.5 goals
- 71 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Borussia Dortmund at home (76 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.75 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 0.90 for SC Paderborn 07. Bookmakers say the same thing: 74 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Borussia Dortmund took 15 points and SC Paderborn 07 8 points. Over 2.5 goals: 71 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Borussia Dortmund | 1.26 | 74 % | -4.5 % |
| XDraw | 6.25 | 15 % | -2.4 % |
| 2SC Paderborn 07 | 8.75 | 11 % | -25.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Borussia Dortmund
- Last 5 matches
- At home
SC Paderborn 07
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Borussia Dortmund | Form and statistics | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| 1803 | Elo | 1600 |
| 2.30 | Goals scored / match | 1.80 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded / match | 1.70 |
| 15.9 | Shots / match | 14.0 |
| 70 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Borussia Dortmund – SC Paderborn 07?
Our model gives 1 · Borussia Dortmund a 76 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Borussia Dortmund win 76 %, draw 16 %, SC Paderborn 07 win 9 %.
What is the most likely score for Borussia Dortmund – SC Paderborn 07?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
