AEK Athens
Panetolikos
AEK Athens – Panetolikos
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 23, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 81 %
- Most likely score
- 2-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.62 – 0.65
- Over 2.5 goals
- 63 %
- Both teams to score
- 45 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards AEK Athens at home (81 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.62 goals for AEK Athens and 0.65 for Panetolikos. Bookmakers say the same thing: 83 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, AEK Athens took 7 points and Panetolikos 3 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for AEK Athens, 1 draw, 1 win for Panetolikos. Over 2.5 goals: 63 %. Both teams to score: 45 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1AEK Athens | 1.11 | 83 % | -9.9 % |
| XDraw | 8.50 | 11 % | +16.3 % |
| 2Panetolikos | 15.00 | 6 % | -22.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
AEK Athens
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Panetolikos
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- AEK Athens
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Panetolikos
- Panetolikos0-5AEK Athens
- AEK Athens1-0Panetolikos
- AEK Athens1-0Panetolikos
- Panetolikos1-0AEK Athens
- Panetolikos2-2AEK Athens
Frequently asked questions
Who will win AEK Athens – Panetolikos?
Our model gives 1 · AEK Athens a 81 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: AEK Athens win 81 %, draw 14 %, Panetolikos win 5 %.
What is the most likely score for AEK Athens – Panetolikos?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.