Valencia
Villarreal
Valencia – Villarreal
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 23, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 40 %
- Most likely score
- 0-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.21 – 1.51
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51 %
- Both teams to score
- 55 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Villarreal away from home (40 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.21 goals for Valencia and 1.51 for Villarreal. Bookmakers say the same thing: 43 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Valencia took 5 points and Villarreal 7 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Valencia, 2 draws, 3 wins for Villarreal. Over 2.5 goals: 51 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Valencia | 3.15 | 30 % | -2.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.65 | 26 % | +4.0 % |
| 2Villarreal | 2.20 | 43 % | -11.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Valencia
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Villarreal
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Valencia
- 2 draws
- 3 wins
- Villarreal
- Villarreal2-1Valencia
- Valencia0-2Villarreal
- Villarreal1-1Valencia
- Valencia1-1Villarreal
- Villarreal1-0Valencia
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Valencia – Villarreal?
Our model gives 2 · Villarreal a 40 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Valencia win 31 %, draw 28 %, Villarreal win 40 %.
What is the most likely score for Valencia – Villarreal?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.