Chelsea
Tottenham Hotspur
Chelsea – Tottenham Hotspur
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 23, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 55 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.89 – 1.15
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59 %
- Both teams to score
- 58 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Chelsea at home (55 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.89 goals for Chelsea and 1.15 for Tottenham Hotspur. Bookmakers say the same thing: 56 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Chelsea took 10 points and Tottenham Hotspur 5 points. In recent meetings: 5 wins for Chelsea, 0 draws, 0 wins for Tottenham Hotspur. Over 2.5 goals: 59 %. Both teams to score: 58 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Chelsea | 1.71 | 56 % | -6.6 % |
| XDraw | 4.10 | 23 % | +1.1 % |
| 2Tottenham Hotspur | 4.45 | 21 % | -8.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Chelsea
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Tottenham Hotspur
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 5 wins
- Chelsea
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Tottenham Hotspur
- Chelsea2-1Tottenham Hotspur
- Tottenham Hotspur0-1Chelsea
- Chelsea1-0Tottenham Hotspur
- Tottenham Hotspur3-4Chelsea
- Chelsea2-0Tottenham Hotspur
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Chelsea – Tottenham Hotspur?
Our model gives 1 · Chelsea a 55 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Chelsea win 55 %, draw 25 %, Tottenham Hotspur win 21 %.
What is the most likely score for Chelsea – Tottenham Hotspur?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.