Napoli
AS Roma
Napoli – AS Roma
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 23, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 40 %
- Most likely score
- 0-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.35 – 1.42
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52 %
- Both teams to score
- 57 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards AS Roma away from home (40 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.35 goals for Napoli and 1.42 for AS Roma. Bookmakers say the same thing: 37 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Napoli took 7 points and AS Roma 8 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Napoli, 3 draws, 0 wins for AS Roma. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 57 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Napoli | 2.79 | 34 % | -3.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.23 | 29 % | -16.8 % |
| 2AS Roma | 2.50 | 37 % | -0.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Napoli
- Last 5 matches
- At home
AS Roma
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Napoli
- 3 draws
- 0 wins
- AS Roma
- Napoli2-2AS Roma
- AS Roma0-1Napoli
- AS Roma1-1Napoli
- Napoli1-0AS Roma
- Napoli2-2AS Roma
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Napoli – AS Roma?
Our model gives 2 · AS Roma a 40 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Napoli win 35 %, draw 26 %, AS Roma win 40 %.
What is the most likely score for Napoli – AS Roma?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.