FC Utrecht
PEC Zwolle
FC Utrecht – PEC Zwolle
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 23, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 63 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.32 – 1.12
- Over 2.5 goals
- 67 %
- Both teams to score
- 61 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards FC Utrecht at home (63 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.32 goals for FC Utrecht and 1.12 for PEC Zwolle. Bookmakers say the same thing: 58 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, FC Utrecht took 10 points and PEC Zwolle 4 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for FC Utrecht, 2 draws, 0 wins for PEC Zwolle. Over 2.5 goals: 67 %. Both teams to score: 61 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Utrecht | 1.62 | 58 % | +1.6 % |
| XDraw | 4.30 | 22 % | -10.9 % |
| 2PEC Zwolle | 4.60 | 20 % | -23.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
FC Utrecht
- Last 5 matches
- At home
PEC Zwolle
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- FC Utrecht
- 2 draws
- 0 wins
- PEC Zwolle
- FC Utrecht1-1PEC Zwolle
- PEC Zwolle0-2FC Utrecht
- PEC Zwolle3-3FC Utrecht
- FC Utrecht1-0PEC Zwolle
- FC Utrecht5-1PEC Zwolle
Frequently asked questions
Who will win FC Utrecht – PEC Zwolle?
Our model gives 1 · FC Utrecht a 63 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: FC Utrecht win 63 %, draw 21 %, PEC Zwolle win 17 %.
What is the most likely score for FC Utrecht – PEC Zwolle?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.