Estrela
Casa Pia
Estrela – Casa Pia
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 23, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 45 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.52 – 0.99
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46 %
- Both teams to score
- 49 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Estrela at home (45 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.52 goals for Estrela and 0.99 for Casa Pia. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 53 %. Over their last five matches, Estrela took 7 points and Casa Pia 7 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Estrela, 0 draws, 2 wins for Casa Pia. Over 2.5 goals: 46 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Estrela | 1.76 | 53 % | -20.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.50 | 27 % | +5.9 % |
| 2Casa Pia | 4.58 | 20 % | +11.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Estrela
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Casa Pia
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Estrela
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- Casa Pia
- Estrela4-0Casa Pia
- Casa Pia3-5Estrela
- Casa Pia1-0Estrela
- Estrela0-1Casa Pia
- Estrela3-1Casa Pia
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Estrela – Casa Pia?
Our model gives 1 · Estrela a 45 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Estrela win 45 %, draw 30 %, Casa Pia win 24 %.
What is the most likely score for Estrela – Casa Pia?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.