Racing Santander
Espanyol
Racing Santander – Espanyol
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 23, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 41 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.53 – 1.31
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54 %
- Both teams to score
- 58 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Racing Santander at home (41 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.53 goals for Racing Santander and 1.31 for Espanyol. Bookmakers say the same thing: 40 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Racing Santander took 4 points and Espanyol 4 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Racing Santander, 0 draws, 1 win for Espanyol. Over 2.5 goals: 54 %. Both teams to score: 58 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Racing Santander | 2.40 | 40 % | -1.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.65 | 26 % | +9.6 % |
| 2Espanyol | 2.80 | 34 % | -19.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Racing Santander
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Espanyol
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Racing Santander
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Espanyol
- Racing Santander2-0Espanyol
- Espanyol2-0Racing Santander
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Racing Santander – Espanyol?
Our model gives 1 · Racing Santander a 41 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Racing Santander win 41 %, draw 30 %, Espanyol win 29 %.
What is the most likely score for Racing Santander – Espanyol?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.