Predictions are closed for this match.
Sudtirol
03:00 PM
Sep 12
Modena
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sudtirol | 3.65 | 26 % | +15.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.10 | 30 % | -1.8 % |
| 2Modena | 2.10 | 44 % | -22.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Sudtirol
Modena
| Sudtirol | Form and statistics | Modena |
|---|---|---|
| 1437 | Elo | 1482 |
| 0.80 | Goals scored / match | 1.20 |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded / match | 1.30 |
| 11.7 | Shots / match | 14.6 |
| 20 % | Win rate | 30 % |
| 7 | Rest days | 6 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:44 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · Modena a 37 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Sudtirol win 32 %, draw 32 %, Modena win 37 %.
The most likely score is 0-1, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 42 %, and both teams scoring at 48 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 3.65 for Sudtirol, 3.10 for the draw, 2.10 for Modena.
Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (Serie B), at Stadio Druso.
The model leans towards Modena away from home (37 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.11 goals for Sudtirol and 1.24 for Modena. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 44 %. Over their last five matches, Sudtirol took 9 points and Modena 6 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Sudtirol, 3 draws, 1 win for Modena. Over 2.5 goals: 42 %. Both teams to score: 48 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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