Falkirk
Kilmarnock
Falkirk – Kilmarnock
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 23, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 50 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.74 – 1.12
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Falkirk at home (50 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.74 goals for Falkirk and 1.12 for Kilmarnock. Bookmakers say the same thing: 52 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Falkirk took 8 points and Kilmarnock 8 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Falkirk, 0 draws, 0 wins for Kilmarnock. Over 2.5 goals: 54 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Falkirk | 1.81 | 52 % | -9.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.88 | 24 % | +0.1 % |
| 2Kilmarnock | 3.83 | 24 % | -8.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Falkirk
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Kilmarnock
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Falkirk
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Kilmarnock
- Falkirk5-1Kilmarnock
- Kilmarnock0-1Falkirk
- Falkirk3-1Kilmarnock
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Falkirk – Kilmarnock?
Our model gives 1 · Falkirk a 50 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Falkirk win 50 %, draw 26 %, Kilmarnock win 24 %.
What is the most likely score for Falkirk – Kilmarnock?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.