Dundee United
Aberdeen
Dundee United – Aberdeen
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 23, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 50 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.59 – 1.08
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50 %
- Both teams to score
- 53 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Dundee United at home (50 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.59 goals for Dundee United and 1.08 for Aberdeen. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 44 %. Over their last five matches, Dundee United took 8 points and Aberdeen 8 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Dundee United, 2 draws, 1 win for Aberdeen. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Dundee United | 2.13 | 44 % | +5.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.48 | 27 % | -10.1 % |
| 2Aberdeen | 3.20 | 29 % | -21.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Dundee United
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Aberdeen
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Dundee United
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Aberdeen
- Aberdeen2-0Dundee United
- Dundee United0-0Aberdeen
- Aberdeen1-1Dundee United
- Dundee United2-0Aberdeen
- Dundee United2-1Aberdeen
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Dundee United – Aberdeen?
Our model gives 1 · Dundee United a 50 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Dundee United win 50 %, draw 26 %, Aberdeen win 24 %.
What is the most likely score for Dundee United – Aberdeen?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.