West Ham United
Southampton
West Ham United – Southampton
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 23, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 59 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.94 – 1.05
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards West Ham United at home (59 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.94 goals for West Ham United and 1.05 for Southampton. Bookmakers say the same thing: 57 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, West Ham United took 8 points and Southampton 10 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for West Ham United, 2 draws, 0 wins for Southampton. Over 2.5 goals: 57 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1West Ham United | 1.65 | 57 % | -1.9 % |
| XDraw | 4.25 | 22 % | -0.4 % |
| 2Southampton | 4.45 | 21 % | -23.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
West Ham United
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Southampton
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- West Ham United
- 2 draws
- 0 wins
- Southampton
- Southampton1-4West Ham United
- West Ham United1-1Southampton
- Southampton0-1West Ham United
- West Ham United1-0Southampton
- Southampton1-1West Ham United
Frequently asked questions
Who will win West Ham United – Southampton?
Our model gives 1 · West Ham United a 59 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: West Ham United win 59 %, draw 23 %, Southampton win 17 %.
What is the most likely score for West Ham United – Southampton?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.