Stoke City
Bristol City
Stoke City – Bristol City
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 23, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 38 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.32 – 1.21
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Stoke City at home (38 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.32 goals for Stoke City and 1.21 for Bristol City. Bookmakers say the same thing: 41 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Stoke City took 12 points and Bristol City 4 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Stoke City, 1 draw, 2 wins for Bristol City. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Stoke City | 2.30 | 41 % | -12.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.40 | 28 % | -1.9 % |
| 2Bristol City | 3.00 | 31 % | -0.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Stoke City
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Bristol City
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Stoke City
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Bristol City
- Bristol City2-0Stoke City
- Stoke City5-1Bristol City
- Bristol City2-0Stoke City
- Stoke City2-2Bristol City
- Stoke City4-0Bristol City
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Stoke City – Bristol City?
Our model gives 1 · Stoke City a 38 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Stoke City win 38 %, draw 29 %, Bristol City win 33 %.
What is the most likely score for Stoke City – Bristol City?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.