Padova
1-0
Ascoli
Padova – Ascoli
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:44 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 37 %
- Most likely score
- 0-111 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.13 – 1.23
The short version
Final score: Padova 1-0 Ascoli. The model predicted a win for Ascoli (37 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.13 goals for Padova and 1.23 for Ascoli. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 27 %. Over their last five matches, Padova took 7 points and Ascoli 10 points. Over 2.5 goals: 42 %. Both teams to score: 48 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Padova | 2.13 | 44 % | -33.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.27 | 29 % | +2.6 % |
| 2Ascoli | 3.40 | 27 % | +26.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Padova
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Ascoli
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Padova – Ascoli?
Final score: Padova 1-0 Ascoli. The model predicted a win for Ascoli (37 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Padova – Ascoli?
Our model gives 2 · Ascoli a 37 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Padova win 31 %, draw 31 %, Ascoli win 37 %.