FC Augsburg
1. FC Union Berlin
FC Augsburg – 1. FC Union Berlin
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 23, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 52 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.95 – 1.36
- Over 2.5 goals
- 64 %
- Both teams to score
- 64 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards FC Augsburg at home (52 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.95 goals for FC Augsburg and 1.36 for 1. FC Union Berlin. Bookmakers say the same thing: 51 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, FC Augsburg took 5 points and 1. FC Union Berlin 4 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for FC Augsburg, 1 draw, 2 wins for 1. FC Union Berlin. Over 2.5 goals: 64 %. Both teams to score: 64 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Augsburg | 1.83 | 51 % | -4.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.88 | 24 % | -5.5 % |
| 21. FC Union Berlin | 3.88 | 24 % | -9.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
FC Augsburg
- Last 5 matches
- At home
1. FC Union Berlin
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- FC Augsburg
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- 1. FC Union Berlin
- 1. FC Union Berlin4-0FC Augsburg
- FC Augsburg1-11. FC Union Berlin
- FC Augsburg1-21. FC Union Berlin
- 1. FC Union Berlin0-2FC Augsburg
- FC Augsburg2-01. FC Union Berlin
Frequently asked questions
Who will win FC Augsburg – 1. FC Union Berlin?
Our model gives 1 · FC Augsburg a 52 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: FC Augsburg win 52 %, draw 24 %, 1. FC Union Berlin win 23 %.
What is the most likely score for FC Augsburg – 1. FC Union Berlin?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.