IK Sirius
AIK
IK Sirius – AIK
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 23, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 59 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.21 – 1.20
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66 %
- Both teams to score
- 62 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards IK Sirius at home (59 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.21 goals for IK Sirius and 1.20 for AIK. Bookmakers say the same thing: 59 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, IK Sirius took 13 points and AIK 2 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for IK Sirius, 0 draws, 2 wins for AIK. Over 2.5 goals: 66 %. Both teams to score: 62 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1IK Sirius | 1.58 | 59 % | -7.3 % |
| XDraw | 4.40 | 21 % | -4.2 % |
| 2AIK | 4.80 | 20 % | -6.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
IK Sirius
- Last 5 matches
- At home
AIK
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- IK Sirius
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- AIK
- AIK0-3IK Sirius
- AIK2-1IK Sirius
- IK Sirius3-1AIK
- IK Sirius0-1AIK
- AIK1-3IK Sirius
Frequently asked questions
Who will win IK Sirius – AIK?
Our model gives 1 · IK Sirius a 59 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: IK Sirius win 59 %, draw 22 %, AIK win 20 %.
What is the most likely score for IK Sirius – AIK?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.