US Avellino
Padova
US Avellino – Padova
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 23, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 47 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.44 – 0.98
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43 %
- Both teams to score
- 48 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards US Avellino at home (47 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.44 goals for US Avellino and 0.98 for Padova. Bookmakers say the same thing: 44 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, US Avellino took 8 points and Padova 3 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for US Avellino, 1 draw, 0 wins for Padova. Over 2.5 goals: 43 %. Both teams to score: 48 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1US Avellino | 2.15 | 44 % | +0.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.35 | 28 % | -2.1 % |
| 2Padova | 3.30 | 28 % | -20.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
US Avellino
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Padova
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- US Avellino
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Padova
- US Avellino1-0Padova
- Padova2-2US Avellino
Frequently asked questions
Who will win US Avellino – Padova?
Our model gives 1 · US Avellino a 47 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: US Avellino win 47 %, draw 29 %, Padova win 24 %.
What is the most likely score for US Avellino – Padova?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.