Rayo Vallecano
Elche
Rayo Vallecano – Elche
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 23, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 52 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.61 – 1.04
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Rayo Vallecano at home (52 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.61 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.04 for Elche. Bookmakers say the same thing: 54 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Rayo Vallecano took 8 points and Elche 6 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Rayo Vallecano, 0 draws, 3 wins for Elche. Over 2.5 goals: 49 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Rayo Vallecano | 1.76 | 54 % | -9.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.85 | 25 % | +5.7 % |
| 2Elche | 4.50 | 21 % | -6.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Rayo Vallecano
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Elche
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Rayo Vallecano
- 0 draws
- 3 wins
- Elche
- Rayo Vallecano1-0Elche
- Elche4-0Rayo Vallecano
- Elche4-0Rayo Vallecano
- Rayo Vallecano2-1Elche
- Elche2-1Rayo Vallecano
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Rayo Vallecano – Elche?
Our model gives 1 · Rayo Vallecano a 52 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Rayo Vallecano win 52 %, draw 27 %, Elche win 21 %.
What is the most likely score for Rayo Vallecano – Elche?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.