Aston Villa
Manchester City
Aston Villa – Manchester City
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 23, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 46 %
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.35 – 1.78
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61 %
- Both teams to score
- 62 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Manchester City away from home (46 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.35 goals for Aston Villa and 1.78 for Manchester City. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 58 %. Over their last five matches, Aston Villa took 13 points and Manchester City 12 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Aston Villa, 0 draws, 2 wins for Manchester City. Over 2.5 goals: 61 %. Both teams to score: 62 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Aston Villa | 4.80 | 20 % | +38.4 % |
| XDraw | 4.32 | 22 % | +8.9 % |
| 2Manchester City | 1.64 | 58 % | -24.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Aston Villa
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Manchester City
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Aston Villa
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- Manchester City
- Manchester City1-2Aston Villa
- Aston Villa1-0Manchester City
- Manchester City2-1Aston Villa
- Aston Villa2-1Manchester City
- Manchester City4-1Aston Villa
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Aston Villa – Manchester City?
Our model gives 2 · Manchester City a 46 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Aston Villa win 29 %, draw 25 %, Manchester City win 46 %.
What is the most likely score for Aston Villa – Manchester City?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.