Derby County
01:30 PM
Sep 12
Birmingham City
Derby County – Birmingham City
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:44 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 0-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.22 – 1.30
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Birmingham City away from home (37 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.22 goals for Derby County and 1.30 for Birmingham City. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 43 %. Over their last five matches, Derby County took 4 points and Birmingham City 5 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Derby County, 1 draw, 0 wins for Birmingham City. Over 2.5 goals: 46 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Derby County | 3.23 | 29 % | +12.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.40 | 28 % | -3.8 % |
| 2Birmingham City | 2.23 | 43 % | -18.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Derby County
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Birmingham City
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Derby County | Form and statistics | Birmingham City |
|---|---|---|
| 1446 | Elo | 1486 |
| 1.10 | Goals scored / match | 1.30 |
| 1.90 | Goals conceded / match | 1.60 |
| 11.2 | Shots / match | 11.0 |
| 20 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Derby County
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Birmingham City
- Derby County1-0Birmingham City
- Birmingham City1-1Derby County
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Derby County – Birmingham City?
Our model gives 2 · Birmingham City a 37 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Derby County win 35 %, draw 28 %, Birmingham City win 37 %.
What is the most likely score for Derby County – Birmingham City?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
