Henan
Beijing Guoan
Henan – Beijing Guoan
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 22, 07:00 PM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 43 %
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.36 – 1.53
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55 %
- Both teams to score
- 59 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Beijing Guoan away from home (43 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.36 goals for Henan and 1.53 for Beijing Guoan. Bookmakers say the same thing: 44 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Henan took 4 points and Beijing Guoan 11 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Henan, 1 draw, 1 win for Beijing Guoan. Over 2.5 goals: 55 %. Both teams to score: 59 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Henan | 3.15 | 30 % | -0.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.55 | 26 % | -11.7 % |
| 2Beijing Guoan | 2.10 | 44 % | -8.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Henan
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Beijing Guoan
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Henan
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Beijing Guoan
- Beijing Guoan1-2Henan
- Henan2-0Beijing Guoan
- Beijing Guoan1-0Henan
- Beijing Guoan1-1Henan
- Henan2-1Beijing Guoan
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Henan – Beijing Guoan?
Our model gives 2 · Beijing Guoan a 43 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Henan win 32 %, draw 25 %, Beijing Guoan win 43 %.
What is the most likely score for Henan – Beijing Guoan?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.