Bolton Wanderers
01:30 PM
Sep 12
Cardiff City
Bolton Wanderers – Cardiff City
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:44 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.53 – 1.19
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51 %
- Both teams to score
- 55 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Bolton Wanderers at home (45 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.53 goals for Bolton Wanderers and 1.19 for Cardiff City. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 34 %. This is the card's value bet: at odds of 2.79, the predicted outcome carries +26.3 % of expected return by the model's reckoning. Over their last five matches, Bolton Wanderers took 1 point and Cardiff City 2 points. Over 2.5 goals: 51 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bolton Wanderers | 2.79 | 34 % | +26.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.70 | 26 % | +1.8 % |
| 2Cardiff City |
Form and statistics
Bolton Wanderers
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Cardiff City
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Bolton Wanderers | Form and statistics | Cardiff City |
|---|---|---|
| 1448 | Elo | 1414 |
| 1.10 | Goals scored / match | 1.20 |
| 2.10 | Goals conceded / match | 1.80 |
| 13.4 | Shots / match | 14.4 |
| 20 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Bolton Wanderers – Cardiff City?
Our model gives 1 · Bolton Wanderers a 45 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Bolton Wanderers win 45 %, draw 28 %, Cardiff City win 27 %.
What is the most likely score for Bolton Wanderers – Cardiff City?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
