Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Shimizu S-Pulse
Sanfrecce Hiroshima – Shimizu S-Pulse
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 22, 07:00 PM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 73 %
- Most likely score
- 2-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.36 – 0.73
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60 %
- Both teams to score
- 47 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home (73 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.36 goals for Sanfrecce Hiroshima and 0.73 for Shimizu S-Pulse. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 67 %. Over their last five matches, Sanfrecce Hiroshima took 12 points and Shimizu S-Pulse 10 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Sanfrecce Hiroshima, 3 draws, 1 win for Shimizu S-Pulse. Over 2.5 goals: 60 %. Both teams to score: 47 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 1.40 | 67 % | +2.3 % |
| XDraw | 4.80 | 20 % | -15.4 % |
| 2Shimizu S-Pulse | 7.00 | 13 % | -34.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Shimizu S-Pulse
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- 3 draws
- 1 win
- Shimizu S-Pulse
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima1-1Shimizu S-Pulse
- Shimizu S-Pulse3-1Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima0-0Shimizu S-Pulse
- Shimizu S-Pulse1-1Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima2-0Shimizu S-Pulse
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Sanfrecce Hiroshima – Shimizu S-Pulse?
Our model gives 1 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima a 73 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Sanfrecce Hiroshima win 73 %, draw 18 %, Shimizu S-Pulse win 9 %.
What is the most likely score for Sanfrecce Hiroshima – Shimizu S-Pulse?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.