Necaxa
FC Juárez
Necaxa – FC Juárez
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 22, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 51 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.66 – 1.01
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Necaxa at home (51 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.66 goals for Necaxa and 1.01 for FC Juárez. Bookmakers say the same thing: 55 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Necaxa took 1 point and FC Juárez 4 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Necaxa, 1 draw, 1 win for FC Juárez. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Necaxa | 1.68 | 55 % | -14.3 % |
| XDraw | 4.00 | 23 % | +6.8 % |
| 2FC Juárez | 4.30 | 22 % | -4.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Necaxa
- Last 5 matches
- At home
FC Juárez
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Necaxa
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- FC Juárez
- FC Juárez1-1Necaxa
- Necaxa1-0FC Juárez
- FC Juárez2-1Necaxa
- Necaxa1-0FC Juárez
- Necaxa1-0FC Juárez
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Necaxa – FC Juárez?
Our model gives 1 · Necaxa a 51 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Necaxa win 51 %, draw 27 %, FC Juárez win 22 %.
What is the most likely score for Necaxa – FC Juárez?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.