Tigre
Atlético Tucumán
Tigre – Atlético Tucumán
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 22, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 52 %
- Most likely score
- 1-014 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.50 – 0.87
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42 %
- Both teams to score
- 45 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Tigre at home (52 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.50 goals for Tigre and 0.87 for Atlético Tucumán. Bookmakers say the same thing: 54 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Tigre took 1 point and Atlético Tucumán 1 point. In recent meetings: 1 win for Tigre, 2 draws, 0 wins for Atlético Tucumán. Over 2.5 goals: 42 %. Both teams to score: 45 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Tigre | 1.74 | 54 % | -9.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.40 | 28 % | -6.2 % |
| 2Atlético Tucumán | 5.00 | 19 % | +2.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Tigre
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Atlético Tucumán
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Tigre
- 2 draws
- 0 wins
- Atlético Tucumán
- Atlético Tucumán0-0Tigre
- Atlético Tucumán1-2Tigre
- Tigre0-0Atlético Tucumán
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Tigre – Atlético Tucumán?
Our model gives 1 · Tigre a 52 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Tigre win 52 %, draw 28 %, Atlético Tucumán win 20 %.
What is the most likely score for Tigre – Atlético Tucumán?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 14 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.