Sport
Criciúma
Sport – Criciúma
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 22, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 37 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.20 – 1.09
- Over 2.5 goals
- 40 %
- Both teams to score
- 47 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Sport at home (37 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.20 goals for Sport and 1.09 for Criciúma. Bookmakers say the same thing: 40 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Sport took 7 points and Criciúma 12 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Sport, 3 draws, 1 win for Criciúma. Over 2.5 goals: 40 %. Both teams to score: 47 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sport | 2.35 | 40 % | -12.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.20 | 29 % | -4.4 % |
| 2Criciúma | 2.95 | 31 % | -2.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Sport
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Criciúma
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Sport
- 3 draws
- 1 win
- Criciúma
- Criciúma1-0Sport
- Sport3-3Criciúma
- Sport1-1Criciúma
- Criciúma1-1Sport
- Sport1-0Criciúma
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Sport – Criciúma?
Our model gives 1 · Sport a 37 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Sport win 37 %, draw 30 %, Criciúma win 33 %.
What is the most likely score for Sport – Criciúma?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.