VfL Bochum
01:00 PM
Sep 12
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
VfL Bochum – SpVgg Greuther Fürth
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:44 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.63 – 1.22
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54 %
- Both teams to score
- 57 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards VfL Bochum at home (47 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.63 goals for VfL Bochum and 1.22 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 55 %. Over their last five matches, VfL Bochum took 9 points and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for VfL Bochum, 0 draws, 0 wins for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Over 2.5 goals: 54 %. Both teams to score: 57 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1VfL Bochum | 1.72 | 55 % | -18.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.95 | 24 % | +2.0 % |
| 2SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 4.32 | 22 % | +16.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
VfL Bochum
- Last 5 matches
- At home
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| VfL Bochum | Form and statistics | SpVgg Greuther Fürth |
|---|---|---|
| 1496 | Elo | 1421 |
| 1.10 | Goals scored / match | 1.70 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded / match | 1.80 |
| 12.5 | Shots / match | 16.9 |
| 50 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- VfL Bochum
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth1-2VfL Bochum
- VfL Bochum2-1SpVgg Greuther Fürth
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth0-3VfL Bochum
Frequently asked questions
Who will win VfL Bochum – SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model gives 1 · VfL Bochum a 47 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: VfL Bochum win 47 %, draw 26 %, SpVgg Greuther Fürth win 27 %.
What is the most likely score for VfL Bochum – SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
