Operário PR
Athletic
Operário PR – Athletic
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 22, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 46 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.41 – 1.09
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46 %
- Both teams to score
- 50 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Operário PR at home (46 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.41 goals for Operário PR and 1.09 for Athletic. Bookmakers say the same thing: 50 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Operário PR took 1 point and Athletic 3 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Operário PR, 0 draws, 2 wins for Athletic. Over 2.5 goals: 46 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Operário PR | 1.86 | 50 % | -14.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.40 | 27 % | -5.6 % |
| 2Athletic | 4.00 | 23 % | +4.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Operário PR
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Athletic
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Operário PR
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- Athletic
- Athletic0-1Operário PR
- Operário PR1-4Athletic
- Athletic2-1Operário PR
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Operário PR – Athletic?
Our model gives 1 · Operário PR a 46 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Operário PR win 46 %, draw 28 %, Athletic win 26 %.
What is the most likely score for Operário PR – Athletic?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.