Gimnasia La Plata
Sarmiento (Junín)
Gimnasia La Plata – Sarmiento (Junín)
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 22, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 54 %
- Most likely score
- 1-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.65 – 0.89
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47 %
- Both teams to score
- 48 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Gimnasia La Plata at home (54 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.65 goals for Gimnasia La Plata and 0.89 for Sarmiento (Junín). Bookmakers say the same thing: 57 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Gimnasia La Plata took 7 points and Sarmiento (Junín) 6 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Gimnasia La Plata, 3 draws, 0 wins for Sarmiento (Junín). Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 48 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Gimnasia La Plata | 1.64 | 57 % | -11.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.75 | 25 % | -4.8 % |
| 2Sarmiento (Junín) | 5.25 | 18 % | +6.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Gimnasia La Plata
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Sarmiento (Junín)
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Gimnasia La Plata
- 3 draws
- 0 wins
- Sarmiento (Junín)
- Sarmiento (Junín)1-2Gimnasia La Plata
- Sarmiento (Junín)0-1Gimnasia La Plata
- Gimnasia La Plata0-0Sarmiento (Junín)
- Sarmiento (Junín)1-1Gimnasia La Plata
- Sarmiento (Junín)0-0Gimnasia La Plata
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Gimnasia La Plata – Sarmiento (Junín)?
Our model gives 1 · Gimnasia La Plata a 54 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Gimnasia La Plata win 54 %, draw 25 %, Sarmiento (Junín) win 20 %.
What is the most likely score for Gimnasia La Plata – Sarmiento (Junín)?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.