Vitória de Guimaraes
Maritimo
Vitória de Guimaraes – Maritimo
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 22, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 59 %
- Most likely score
- 1-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.74 – 0.85
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48 %
- Both teams to score
- 48 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Vitória de Guimaraes at home (59 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.74 goals for Vitória de Guimaraes and 0.85 for Maritimo. Bookmakers say the same thing: 59 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Vitória de Guimaraes took 5 points and Maritimo 4 points. In recent meetings: 4 wins for Vitória de Guimaraes, 1 draw, 0 wins for Maritimo. Over 2.5 goals: 48 %. Both teams to score: 48 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Vitória de Guimaraes | 1.57 | 59 % | -8.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.77 | 25 % | -8.6 % |
| 2Maritimo | 5.63 | 16 % | -2.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Vitória de Guimaraes
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Maritimo
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 4 wins
- Vitória de Guimaraes
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Maritimo
- Maritimo1-2Vitória de Guimaraes
- Vitória de Guimaraes1-0Maritimo
- Maritimo0-1Vitória de Guimaraes
- Vitória de Guimaraes2-1Maritimo
- Maritimo0-0Vitória de Guimaraes
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Vitória de Guimaraes – Maritimo?
Our model gives 1 · Vitória de Guimaraes a 59 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Vitória de Guimaraes win 59 %, draw 24 %, Maritimo win 17 %.
What is the most likely score for Vitória de Guimaraes – Maritimo?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.