Alavés
Málaga
Alavés – Málaga
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 22, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 54 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.69 – 0.99
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Alavés at home (54 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.69 goals for Alavés and 0.99 for Málaga. Bookmakers say the same thing: 54 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Alavés took 1 point and Málaga 2 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Alavés, 0 draws, 1 win for Málaga. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Alavés | 1.76 | 54 % | -5.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.70 | 26 % | -2.5 % |
| 2Málaga | 4.80 | 20 % | -4.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Alavés
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Málaga
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Alavés
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Málaga
- Alavés2-1Málaga
- Málaga1-0Alavés
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Alavés – Málaga?
Our model gives 1 · Alavés a 54 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Alavés win 54 %, draw 26 %, Málaga win 20 %.
What is the most likely score for Alavés – Málaga?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.