Bolton Wanderers
Middlesbrough
Bolton Wanderers – Middlesbrough
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 22, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 51 %
- Most likely score
- 0-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.11 – 1.69
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53 %
- Both teams to score
- 55 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Middlesbrough away from home (51 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.11 goals for Bolton Wanderers and 1.69 for Middlesbrough. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 60 %. Over their last five matches, Bolton Wanderers took 10 points and Middlesbrough 9 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Bolton Wanderers, 0 draws, 1 win for Middlesbrough. Over 2.5 goals: 53 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bolton Wanderers | 5.13 | 18 % | +15.0 % |
| XDraw | 4.35 | 22 % | +13.8 % |
| 2Middlesbrough | 1.55 | 60 % | -20.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Bolton Wanderers
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Middlesbrough
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Bolton Wanderers
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Middlesbrough
- Bolton Wanderers1-3Middlesbrough
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Bolton Wanderers – Middlesbrough?
Our model gives 2 · Middlesbrough a 51 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Bolton Wanderers win 22 %, draw 26 %, Middlesbrough win 51 %.
What is the most likely score for Bolton Wanderers – Middlesbrough?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.