Torino
Monza
Torino – Monza
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 22, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 43 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.50 – 1.21
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51 %
- Both teams to score
- 55 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Torino at home (43 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.50 goals for Torino and 1.21 for Monza. Bookmakers say the same thing: 44 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Torino took 10 points and Monza 7 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Torino, 2 draws, 1 win for Monza. Over 2.5 goals: 51 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Torino | 2.13 | 44 % | -7.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.33 | 28 % | -12.6 % |
| 2Monza | 3.40 | 28 % | +2.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Torino
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Monza
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Torino
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Monza
- Torino0-1Monza
- Monza0-2Torino
- Torino1-1Monza
- Torino1-0Monza
- Monza1-1Torino
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Torino – Monza?
Our model gives 1 · Torino a 43 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Torino win 43 %, draw 26 %, Monza win 30 %.
What is the most likely score for Torino – Monza?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.