Empoli
Vicenza
Empoli – Vicenza
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 22, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 48 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.57 – 0.99
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47 %
- Both teams to score
- 50 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Empoli at home (48 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.57 goals for Empoli and 0.99 for Vicenza. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 39 %. Over their last five matches, Empoli took 4 points and Vicenza 3 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Empoli, 1 draw, 0 wins for Vicenza. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Empoli | 2.40 | 39 % | +15.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.30 | 28 % | -7.8 % |
| 2Vicenza | 2.90 | 32 % | -30.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Empoli
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Vicenza
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Empoli
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Vicenza
- Empoli4-2Vicenza
- Vicenza0-2Empoli
- Empoli2-2Vicenza
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Empoli – Vicenza?
Our model gives 1 · Empoli a 48 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Empoli win 48 %, draw 28 %, Vicenza win 24 %.
What is the most likely score for Empoli – Vicenza?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.