Granada
Real Valladolid
Granada – Real Valladolid
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 22, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 51 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.59 – 1.03
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49 %
- Both teams to score
- 51 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Granada at home (51 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.59 goals for Granada and 1.03 for Real Valladolid. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 42 %. Over their last five matches, Granada took 9 points and Real Valladolid 8 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Granada, 0 draws, 2 wins for Real Valladolid. Over 2.5 goals: 49 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Granada | 2.20 | 42 % | +12.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.20 | 29 % | -18.9 % |
| 2Real Valladolid | 3.25 | 29 % | -24.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Granada
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Real Valladolid
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Granada
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- Real Valladolid
- Granada5-1Real Valladolid
- Real Valladolid2-1Granada
- Real Valladolid1-2Granada
- Granada1-3Real Valladolid
- Granada2-1Real Valladolid
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Granada – Real Valladolid?
Our model gives 1 · Granada a 51 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Granada win 51 %, draw 25 %, Real Valladolid win 23 %.
What is the most likely score for Granada – Real Valladolid?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.