1. FC Magdeburg
01:00 PM
Sep 12
Kaiserslautern
1. FC Magdeburg – Kaiserslautern
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:44 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.51 – 1.30
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53 %
- Both teams to score
- 57 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards 1. FC Magdeburg at home (42 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.51 goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.30 for Kaiserslautern. Bookmakers say the same thing: 45 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, 1. FC Magdeburg took 9 points and Kaiserslautern 11 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for 1. FC Magdeburg, 1 draw, 1 win for Kaiserslautern. Over 2.5 goals: 53 %. Both teams to score: 57 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11. FC Magdeburg | 2.10 | 45 % | -12.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.70 | 26 % | +0.3 % |
| 2Kaiserslautern | 3.20 | 30 % | +0.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
1. FC Magdeburg
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Kaiserslautern
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| 1. FC Magdeburg | Form and statistics | Kaiserslautern |
|---|---|---|
| 1517 | Elo | 1548 |
| 1.70 | Goals scored / match | 0.90 |
| 1.10 | Goals conceded / match | 0.70 |
| 12.6 | Shots / match | 11.8 |
| 60 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- 1. FC Magdeburg
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Kaiserslautern
- 1. FC Magdeburg0-1Kaiserslautern
- Kaiserslautern2-31. FC Magdeburg
- 1. FC Magdeburg2-0Kaiserslautern
- Kaiserslautern2-21. FC Magdeburg
Frequently asked questions
Who will win 1. FC Magdeburg – Kaiserslautern?
Our model gives 1 · 1. FC Magdeburg a 42 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: 1. FC Magdeburg win 42 %, draw 27 %, Kaiserslautern win 31 %.
What is the most likely score for 1. FC Magdeburg – Kaiserslautern?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
