IF Elfsborg
Malmö FF
IF Elfsborg – Malmö FF
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 22, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 47 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.57 – 1.15
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51 %
- Both teams to score
- 54 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards IF Elfsborg at home (47 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.57 goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.15 for Malmö FF. Bookmakers say the same thing: 46 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, IF Elfsborg took 10 points and Malmö FF 7 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for IF Elfsborg, 1 draw, 2 wins for Malmö FF. Over 2.5 goals: 51 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1IF Elfsborg | 2.05 | 46 % | -4.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.60 | 26 % | -6.2 % |
| 2Malmö FF | 3.30 | 28 % | -10.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
IF Elfsborg
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Malmö FF
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- IF Elfsborg
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Malmö FF
- Malmö FF1-2IF Elfsborg
- IF Elfsborg2-2Malmö FF
- Malmö FF2-1IF Elfsborg
- Malmö FF2-1IF Elfsborg
- IF Elfsborg3-1Malmö FF
Frequently asked questions
Who will win IF Elfsborg – Malmö FF?
Our model gives 1 · IF Elfsborg a 47 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: IF Elfsborg win 47 %, draw 26 %, Malmö FF win 27 %.
What is the most likely score for IF Elfsborg – Malmö FF?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.