Alanyaspor
Kocaelispor
Alanyaspor – Kocaelispor
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 22, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 42 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.37 – 1.07
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44 %
- Both teams to score
- 49 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Alanyaspor at home (42 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.37 goals for Alanyaspor and 1.07 for Kocaelispor. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 48 %. Over their last five matches, Alanyaspor took 8 points and Kocaelispor 6 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Alanyaspor, 0 draws, 1 win for Kocaelispor. Over 2.5 goals: 44 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Alanyaspor | 1.95 | 48 % | -17.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.20 | 29 % | +0.6 % |
| 2Kocaelispor | 4.00 | 23 % | +5.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Alanyaspor
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Kocaelispor
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Alanyaspor
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Kocaelispor
- Alanyaspor5-0Kocaelispor
- Kocaelispor2-0Alanyaspor
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Alanyaspor – Kocaelispor?
Our model gives 1 · Alanyaspor a 42 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Alanyaspor win 42 %, draw 31 %, Kocaelispor win 26 %.
What is the most likely score for Alanyaspor – Kocaelispor?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.