Predictions are closed for this match.
Sevilla
09:00 PM
Sep 11
Valencia
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sevilla | 1.80 | 53 % | -27.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.55 | 27 % | +7.2 % |
| 2Valencia | 4.90 | 20 % | +44.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Sevilla
Valencia
| Sevilla | Form and statistics | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| 1579 | Elo | 1628 |
| 1.40 | Goals scored / match | 1.20 |
| 1.30 | Goals conceded / match | 1.70 |
| 13.0 | Shots / match | 11.4 |
| 50 % | Win rate | 40 % |
| 5 | Rest days | 5 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:43 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Sevilla a 40 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Sevilla win 40 %, draw 30 %, Valencia win 29 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 43 %, and both teams scoring at 49 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.80 for Sevilla, 3.55 for the draw, 4.90 for Valencia.
Kick-off is scheduled for Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:00 PM (LaLiga), at Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium.
The model leans towards Sevilla at home (40 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.32 goals for Sevilla and 1.07 for Valencia. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 53 %. Over their last five matches, Sevilla took 7 points and Valencia 4 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Sevilla, 3 draws, 2 wins for Valencia. Over 2.5 goals: 43 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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