Predictions are closed for this match.
Benevento
09:00 PM
Sep 11
Hellas Verona
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Benevento | 2.66 | 35 % | +6.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.15 | 30 % | -10.7 % |
| 2Hellas Verona | 2.64 | 35 % | -16.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Benevento
Hellas Verona
| Benevento | Form and statistics | Hellas Verona |
|---|---|---|
| 1465 | Elo | 1428 |
| 1.67 | Goals scored / match | 1.30 |
| 2.22 | Goals conceded / match | 1.10 |
| 14.8 | Shots / match | 12.4 |
| 22 % | Win rate | 20 % |
| 6 | Rest days | 5 |
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:43 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Benevento a 40 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Benevento win 40 %, draw 28 %, Hellas Verona win 32 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 49 %, and both teams scoring at 54 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 2.66 for Benevento, 3.15 for the draw, 2.64 for Hellas Verona.
Kick-off is scheduled for Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:00 PM (Serie B), at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
The model leans towards Benevento at home (40 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.37 goals for Benevento and 1.26 for Hellas Verona. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 35 %. Over their last five matches, Benevento took 4 points and Hellas Verona 8 points. Over 2.5 goals: 49 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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