Predictions are closed for this match.
KV Mechelen
08:45 PM
Sep 11
Anderlecht
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1KV Mechelen | 3.95 | 24 % | -7.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.70 | 25 % | -5.1 % |
| 2Anderlecht | 1.80 | 51 % | -8.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
KV Mechelen
Anderlecht
| KV Mechelen | Form and statistics | Anderlecht |
|---|---|---|
| 1459 | Elo | 1610 |
| 1.00 | Goals scored / match | 1.60 |
| 2.30 | Goals conceded / match | 0.80 |
| 9.7 | Shots / match | 12.0 |
| 10 % | Win rate | 70 % |
| 6 | Rest days | 5 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:43 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · Anderlecht a 51 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: KV Mechelen win 23 %, draw 26 %, Anderlecht win 51 %.
The most likely score is 0-1, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 50 %, and both teams scoring at 52 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 3.95 for KV Mechelen, 3.70 for the draw, 1.80 for Anderlecht.
Kick-off is scheduled for Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:45 PM (Belgian Pro League), at AFAS Stadion.
The model leans towards Anderlecht away from home (51 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.05 goals for KV Mechelen and 1.61 for Anderlecht. Bookmakers say the same thing: 51 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, KV Mechelen took 2 points and Anderlecht 10 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for KV Mechelen, 1 draw, 3 wins for Anderlecht. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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