Flamengo
Estudiantes de La Plata
Flamengo – Estudiantes de La Plata
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 22, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 69 %
- Most likely score
- 2-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.01 – 0.79
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53 %
- Both teams to score
- 47 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Flamengo at home (69 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.01 goals for Flamengo and 0.79 for Estudiantes de La Plata. Bookmakers say the same thing: 69 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Flamengo took 11 points and Estudiantes de La Plata 5 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Flamengo, 2 draws, 1 win for Estudiantes de La Plata. Over 2.5 goals: 53 %. Both teams to score: 47 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Flamengo | 1.38 | 69 % | -4.5 % |
| XDraw | 4.60 | 21 % | -11.7 % |
| 2Estudiantes de La Plata | 9.00 | 11 % | +4.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Flamengo
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Estudiantes de La Plata
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Flamengo
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Estudiantes de La Plata
- Estudiantes de La Plata0-0Flamengo
- Flamengo1-0Estudiantes de La Plata
- Estudiantes de La Plata1-1Flamengo
- Estudiantes de La Plata1-0Flamengo
- Flamengo2-1Estudiantes de La Plata
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Flamengo – Estudiantes de La Plata?
Our model gives 1 · Flamengo a 69 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Flamengo win 69 %, draw 19 %, Estudiantes de La Plata win 12 %.
What is the most likely score for Flamengo – Estudiantes de La Plata?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.