Pachuca
Cruz Azul
Pachuca – Cruz Azul
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 21, 07:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 43 %
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.35 – 1.71
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59 %
- Both teams to score
- 61 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Cruz Azul away from home (43 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.35 goals for Pachuca and 1.71 for Cruz Azul. Bookmakers say the same thing: 42 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Pachuca took 5 points and Cruz Azul 8 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Pachuca, 0 draws, 3 wins for Cruz Azul. Over 2.5 goals: 59 %. Both teams to score: 61 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Pachuca | 2.95 | 32 % | -8.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.60 | 26 % | -5.1 % |
| 2Cruz Azul | 2.25 | 42 % | -3.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Pachuca
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Cruz Azul
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Pachuca
- 0 draws
- 3 wins
- Cruz Azul
- Cruz Azul1-2Pachuca
- Pachuca0-1Cruz Azul
- Cruz Azul2-1Pachuca
- Pachuca2-4Cruz Azul
- Cruz Azul0-1Pachuca
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Pachuca – Cruz Azul?
Our model gives 2 · Cruz Azul a 43 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Pachuca win 31 %, draw 26 %, Cruz Azul win 43 %.
What is the most likely score for Pachuca – Cruz Azul?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.