Predictions are closed for this match.
Stade Rennais
08:45 PM
Sep 11
Marseille
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Stade Rennais | 1.98 | 48 % | -5.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.85 | 25 % | -9.9 % |
| 2Marseille | 3.50 | 27 % | +1.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Stade Rennais
Marseille
| Stade Rennais | Form and statistics | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| 1690 | Elo | 1663 |
| 2.30 | Goals scored / match | 1.50 |
| 1.80 | Goals conceded / match | 1.50 |
| 16.6 | Shots / match | 16.9 |
| 70 % | Win rate | 40 % |
| 5 | Rest days | 5 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:43 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Stade Rennais a 48 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Stade Rennais win 48 %, draw 23 %, Marseille win 29 %.
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 61 %, and both teams scoring at 62 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.98 for Stade Rennais, 3.85 for the draw, 3.50 for Marseille.
Kick-off is scheduled for Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:45 PM (Ligue 1), at Roazhon Park.
The model leans towards Stade Rennais at home (48 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.81 goals for Stade Rennais and 1.32 for Marseille. Bookmakers say the same thing: 48 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Stade Rennais took 10 points and Marseille 9 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Stade Rennais, 0 draws, 4 wins for Marseille. Over 2.5 goals: 61 %. Both teams to score: 62 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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