TSG Hoffenheim
Lyon
TSG Hoffenheim – Lyon
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 22, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 41 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.60 – 1.37
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57 %
- Both teams to score
- 60 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards TSG Hoffenheim at home (41 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.60 goals for TSG Hoffenheim and 1.37 for Lyon. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 49 %. Over their last five matches, TSG Hoffenheim took 3 points and Lyon 12 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for TSG Hoffenheim, 1 draw, 0 wins for Lyon. Over 2.5 goals: 57 %. Both teams to score: 60 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1TSG Hoffenheim | 1.95 | 49 % | -19.5 % |
| XDraw | 4.00 | 24 % | -8.1 % |
| 2Lyon | 3.42 | 28 % | +22.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
TSG Hoffenheim
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Lyon
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- TSG Hoffenheim
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Lyon
- TSG Hoffenheim2-2Lyon
Frequently asked questions
Who will win TSG Hoffenheim – Lyon?
Our model gives 1 · TSG Hoffenheim a 41 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: TSG Hoffenheim win 41 %, draw 23 %, Lyon win 36 %.
What is the most likely score for TSG Hoffenheim – Lyon?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.