Venezia
2-4
Fiorentina
Venezia – Fiorentina
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:43 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 47 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.49 – 1.09
The short version
Final score: Venezia 2-4 Fiorentina. The model predicted a win for Venezia (47 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.49 goals for Venezia and 1.09 for Fiorentina. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 33 %. Over their last five matches, Venezia took 3 points and Fiorentina 4 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Venezia, 1 draw, 0 wins for Fiorentina. Over 2.5 goals: 48 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Venezia | 2.80 | 33 % | +32.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.35 | 28 % | -13.3 % |
| 2Fiorentina | 2.35 | 39 % | -36.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Venezia
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Fiorentina
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Venezia
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Fiorentina
- Venezia2-1Fiorentina
- Fiorentina0-0Venezia
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Venezia – Fiorentina?
Final score: Venezia 2-4 Fiorentina. The model predicted a win for Venezia (47 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Venezia – Fiorentina?
Our model gives 1 · Venezia a 47 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Venezia win 47 %, draw 26 %, Fiorentina win 27 %.