Predictions are closed for this match.
Venezia
08:45 PM
Sep 11
Fiorentina
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Venezia | 2.80 | 33 % | +32.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.35 | 28 % | -13.3 % |
| 2Fiorentina | 2.35 | 39 % | -36.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Venezia
Fiorentina
| Venezia | Form and statistics | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| 1597 | Elo | 1592 |
| 1.60 | Goals scored / match | 0.90 |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded / match | 1.60 |
| 16.0 | Shots / match | 12.7 |
| 40 % | Win rate | 20 % |
| 5 | Rest days | 6 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:43 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Venezia a 47 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Venezia win 47 %, draw 26 %, Fiorentina win 27 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 48 %, and both teams scoring at 52 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 2.80 for Venezia, 3.35 for the draw, 2.35 for Fiorentina.
Kick-off is scheduled for Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:45 PM (Serie A), at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo.
The model leans towards Venezia at home (47 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.49 goals for Venezia and 1.09 for Fiorentina. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 33 %. This is the card's value bet: at odds of 2.80, the predicted outcome carries +32.0 % of expected return by the model's reckoning. Over their last five matches, Venezia took 3 points and Fiorentina 4 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Venezia, 1 draw, 0 wins for Fiorentina. Over 2.5 goals: 48 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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