NK Celje
RB Salzburg
NK Celje – RB Salzburg
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 22, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 49 %
- Most likely score
- 0-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.17 – 1.56
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51 %
- Both teams to score
- 55 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards RB Salzburg away from home (49 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.17 goals for NK Celje and 1.56 for RB Salzburg. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 62 %. Over their last five matches, NK Celje took 4 points and RB Salzburg 10 points. Over 2.5 goals: 51 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1NK Celje | 5.88 | 16 % | +50.3 % |
| XDraw | 4.40 | 22 % | +13.0 % |
| 2RB Salzburg | 1.53 | 62 % | -25.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
NK Celje
- Last 5 matches
- At home
RB Salzburg
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win NK Celje – RB Salzburg?
Our model gives 2 · RB Salzburg a 49 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: NK Celje win 26 %, draw 26 %, RB Salzburg win 49 %.
What is the most likely score for NK Celje – RB Salzburg?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.